New Division Rankings After Week 4 For AFC

We are now a fourth of the way through the season and we have a pretty good idea of what teams are made out of this season, and where they are headed.  You can check my preseason rankings blogs from division to division to see where I had everyone.  After 4 games and a lot of parody around the league, some things have changed.  Let's take a look at the Predicted standings for the end of the year.

AFC EAST

4. Miami Dolphins - The bad thing is when you pull up the Dolphins website there is a picture of Dan Marino.  You have to move on and get new talent that can play today.  There will be a new coach next year and a new quarterback.  They finish 3-13.

3.  Buffalo Bills - I love this team, but this schedule is brutal.  They have the play the NFC East, Patriots, Jets twice, the Titans, and the Chargers.  They may play spoiler for some teams, but they will finish 9-7

2.  New York Jets - I'm not impressed with this team this year, and if they get this spot it will be because they beat the Bills in the regular season, which I think they will.  Jets finish 10-6

1.  New England Patriots - This team has the easiest schedule of all the teams in the East, so they will win the division hands down.  I see them ending up 13-3 with a first round bye in the playoffs.

AFC NORTH

4. Cincinnati Bengals - This team has beaten the good teams and lost to the bad teams, so who are they?  The defense looks good, but they are young and play a tough schedule.  They finish 5-11 this year in last place in the North.

3.  Cleveland Browns - This team is one year away from surpassing the Steelers for second place in this division,  They will get swept by Baltimore and could split with Pittsburgh.  They have a lighter schedule, so I see them winning 9 games and finishing with a winning record.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers schedule isn't too bad, but this team isn't great anymore.  They are getting older, and they will miss Harrison on defense.  By beating the Browns and Bengals, they will finish 10-6 but I don't think they make the playoffs.

1.  Baltimore Ravens -  Defense is getting old?  Not quite yet!  This team looks really good.  And with a pretty easy schedule, this team will win 13 games but they will have to travel to Foxborough in the playoffs if it comes to that.  What an interesting match that would be.

AFC WEST 

4. Kansas City Chiefs - There isn't much to say about this team.  They miss Charlie Weiss and they have way too many injuries on both sides of the ball.  They will lose to the Colts this weekend and they will finish 3-13 overall.

3.  Denver Broncos - I never thought I would see a John Fox team with a fan base controlling the team chemistry.  Everyone seems to want Tebow for some reason, but it they get their wish, I don't see them doing much better.  This team finishes 5-11 this year.

2.  San Diego Chargers - So I've waffled back and forth but with an extremely tough schedule and Antonio Gates banged up, I'm not a fan of this team.  Rivers seems to be making some bone-headed decisions this year as well, so I have them finishing 9-7 this year.

1. Oakland Raiders - I'm sticking my neck out here for the Raiders because I love McFadden.  I see them winning 10 or 11 games this year based on their schedule.  Projection:  10-6 cause they will split with the Chargers this year.

AFC SOUTH

4.  Indianapolis Colts - This breaks my heart to put the Colts down here at number four.  Because of what's playing out, I still think Peyton Manning should win the league MVP this year.  They have played better the last two weeks and I do think they win the next two games then sweep the Jags, so they will finish 4-12.

3  Jacksonville Jaguars - This team is bad, and I think they may be below the Colts if the they are swept by Indy, cause they will finish with the same record.  4-12 for the Jags.

2.  Tennessee Titans - This team is much improved and a lot better than I thought they would be.  They will finish 9-7 this year because they have a difficult schedule, but great job to new coach Muchack for having them playing so well.

1.  Houston Texans - Losing Andre Johnson is a huge blow but the Texans still have Arian Foster and Ben Tate, so don't be too concerned with this team.  They will finish 11-5 and win the division easily.

This is my quarter season AFC breakdown and predictions.  Weigh in on your thoughts and if you agree or disagree and let me know what you think will happen going forward!

Most Surprising Players Thus Far in 2011

After watching some highlights of the Bears Panthers game this weekend, I thought it would be fun to take a look at some of the guys that have rejuvenated their careers this year and look better than ever.

The first guy that comes to mind is Steve Smith of the Carolina Panthers.  He seemingly fell off the map for the past two seasons not producing very good numbers at all.  This year he already has 24 catches for 530 yards and 2 TD's.  That's over 22 ypc if you're keeping track.  This may be because of the emergence of rookie QB Cam Newton, but Smith looks like a pro bowl player once again.

Matt Forte:  Not that's he's went anywhere, but these numbers are worth showing.  Through four games he has 634 combined yards rushing and receiving and 2 TD's.  He's accounted for nearly 60% of the Bears offensive production, and makes $945,250 this season.  Compare that to Chris Johnson's combined 301 yards and $30 million guaranteed contract.  Doesn't seem to make much sense to me.
  
Matt Hasselback:  the resurgence of this man is the biggest surprise of the season in my opinion and why the Titans are 3-1.  He's thrown for over over 1,150 yards, 8 TD's, and a QB rating of over 104.  These are amazing numbers for a guy in his mid 30's that Seattle and everyone else thought was washed up.  Way to go Matt!

Now let's go to the obvious pick, rookie Cam Newton.  He's made rookie mistakes, which are to be expected, but he's thrown for a rookie record 1,386 yard, 5 TD's and 5 INT's.  He's also rushed for 4 more TD's so far this season.  He looks mature well beyond his years and has this Panthers team competing in every game each week.

There have been many guys that have stepped up this year, but these are the guys that stick out the most to me.  Let me know if you think someone else should have been on this list!

Week 5 Bold Predictions and Spreads

Well last week was a tough week for picking games across the league, but I still managed to go 9-7 and help some people win some money on key match ups, especially the Monday night game last night.  We're moving into Wednesday, mid-week, and this is when I start looking at the match-ups and breaking them down, giving preliminary spreads and predictions.  Let's jump right into it shall we?

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers - Surprisingly the Saints are only 7 point favorites in this game, but that's largely credited to the emergence of rookie Cam Newton.  He's had Carolina in every game they've played this season, and he appears to get better and better each week.  Being in Carolina, I don't expect the Saints to run away with this one, but they will cover the spread this weekend, 24-14 

The Titans at the Steelers is going to be a great game.  It looks like Roethlisberger may not play in this game, but remember last year when the QB was out the first four games and they started off 4-0.  This isn't the same team as last year.  The Steelers are playing at home and are 4 point favorites, but I don't see them winning this game.  The offensive line is awful, they can't run the ball, and they are playing the top ranked defense in the NFL.  I like the Titans in an upset here 16-13. 

Kansas City Chiefs at the Indianapolis Colts - The Colts have looked competitive the last two weeks and despite Curtis Painter throwing 13-30, he looked pretty consistent and kept the Colts in the game.  But defensively they've now lost Eric Foster, Melvin Bullit, and Gary Brackett for the season.  This game will be the contest for first pick in the draft possibly in April.  The Colts are three point favorites playing at home, but the Chiefs played the Chargers tough last weekend and beat the Vikings two nights ago so this could be a toss up.  I'm going out on a limb here and saying the Colts will win this game 24-19

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills -  It looks like Michael Vick is going to play and this team is bound to get things turned around eventually.  The Bills are coming off a heart breaking loss to the Bengals to drop to 3-1.  This is the game of the season for them to see if they are actually for real or not.  The Bills are getting 3 points at home this weekend.  Weather shouldn't be too much of a factor, so the Eagles shouldn't be deterred by unfavorable conditions.  I like the Eagles to get off of the skid here 31-20

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants - The Seahawks have shown some improvement the last few weeks, but they are traveling to the meadowlands to face the Giants who are looking to find their stride despite all the injuries on defense.  The Giants are 10 point favorites but they are not covering the spread in too many games this year.  I do like the defense to get after Travaris Jackson and shut down the Seattle offense.  Giants will cover this week 27-6

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars - The Bengals are coming off a huge victory over the Bills and Andy Dalton looks like he's progressing each week.  the Jags are in trouble offensively, and I don't see them winning this game.  They are 2.5 point favorites right now at home, but the Bengals will win this one 16-10

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans - Both of these teams are good this year, but the Texans are playing this one at home and have a healthy Arian Foster.  Andre Johnson may be hurt, so that will give Oakland a slight edge if Johnson can't go.  Houston is 6 point favorites and they can put up points in bunches.  I do expect them to cover in this one 31-21

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings - The Cards are a very good team but they play down to their competition at times and they make too many mental errors.  Minnesota is awful, and somehow they are 2.5 favorites, mainly cause it's a home game.  Look for Arizona to rebound from two straight tough losses and hand the Vikings their 5th straight.  Cards win 27-24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers are surprisingly 3 point favorites in this one, so this one will be considered an upset when the Buccaneers win.  Bucs win 18-15

New York Jets at New England Patriots - This will be the game of the week!  Patriots are the best team in the AFC and the Jets defense is struggling.  Mark Sanchez needs to be better at this stage in his career as well, so I think the Jets are losing some ground here.  Patriots cover the 9 point spread and win big 30-13

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos - It's no longer September so look for the Chargers to play much better than they have in previous weeks.  It looks like they'll still be without Gates which hurts there game over the middle.  They only have 4.5 points they're getting, so I think they will cover with a 21-13 victory

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons -  This is where the Falcons crumbled last year in the post season and still haven't found themselves.  Green Bay is not invincible and are bound to slip up sooner or later and I think that this will be that week.  They are 6.5 point favorites but I think the Falcons win at home outright 27-24
UPSET ALERT

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions -  This is going to be a good game, but Cutler will find himself on the ground double digit times.  The Lions are 6 point favorites and will cover because that defense will get after Jay Cutler all night.  They will start fast and finish strong, winning 28-20

NFL officially cuts ties with Hank Williams Jr After 20 long seasons of MNF

ESPN announced earlier today that they will be pulling the intro "Are You Ready For Some Football" from the Monday Night Football broadcasts moving forward, after Williams made some derogatory remarks towards President Obama on a radio program earlier today. 

In a political discussion, Williams voluntarily brought up President Barack Obama's golf game with Speaker of the House John Boehner during this summer's debt ceiling negotiations, calling it "one of the biggest political mistakes ever" and invoking Adolf Hitler.  Williams said it would be like Hitler playing golf with the Prime Minister of Israel.  He also called the president and vice president Biden "the enemy".

Williams apparently plans to run for republican Senate of Tennessee in 2012.

His music has graced the intro of every Monday night football game for the past 20 years.  It's going to be a lot different without him.  This is an unfortunate turn of events for the NFL.

Week 4 Around the League

There were some interesting games around the league today with the Bills finally getting their first loss of the season and the Packers and Lions staying undefeated.  As far as my picks against the spread, it was a rough week, sitting at 7-7 right now.  50% is still pretty good odds for a bad week.  We'll improve on it next week.  Let's look at today's action.

Surprise Team of the Year Through Week 4

I know the Lions are 4-0 for the first time since 1980 but I really expected them to be.  My surprise team so far this season is the Tennessee Titans.  They boast the number one defense in the NFL, man-handling the Browns today 31-13, just like they did the Baltimore Ravens two weeks ago.  They are 3-1 and sitting atop the AFC South with the Houston Texans.  Matt Hasselback looks like he's having fun again at quarterback and I commend the decision that new head coach Mike Munchak made to bring him in.  As for Chris Johnson, he still doesn't have his legs under him yet so he's looking like an overpaid decoy.  He needs to get in shape and get it together, as this is the only thing I see holding this team back moving forward.

The Lions overcame a 24 point deficit to defeat the Dallas Cowboys 34-30, marking the largest blown lead in franchise history for the Boys.  This is the second week in a row the Lions had to come from 20 behind.  This is going to wear them thin and catch up with them eventually.  They need to do a better job of scripting their first 20 plays and getting off to a fast start.  They have shown me a lot to come from behind like this, so I see them as a very dangerous team in the NFC. 

How can a team that shouldn't have made the playoffs last year go on to win the Super Bowl and now look invincible in every aspect of the game?  Of course I'm talking about the Green Bay Packers, who won big 49-23 over the Broncos, with Aaron Rodgers scoring 6 touchdowns; four through the air and 2 on the ground.  This guy is on a different planet right now, and it doesn't seem like he's going to slow down anytime soon. 

As for the team that lost last years Super Bowl, they will not be making it back to the playoffs this year.  I initially had them winning the division, but right now we have a 4 way tie depending on what Baltimore does tonight (who is my new pick to win the division).  Houston's defense dominated the Steelers and won the game 17-10.  Arian Foster seems to be back to rare form, rushing for over 150 yards against the Steeler defense, which never happens.  The league has so much parody this year and it seems like the Steelers are being left behind.  To top it off, Roethlisberger left the stadium in a walking boot.  Could be a long season for the black and yellow.

The Bears got a big day from Matt Forte in a 34-29 victory over Cam Newton and the Panthers.  Who said the Bears can't run the ball.  Forte had 25 carries for over 250 yards.  This guy accounts for 60% of the Bears offense.  Tell me why they haven't given him a contract yet?

The "Dream Team" drops another one this week to the 49ers 24-23, and now sit at the bottom of the NFC East at 1-3.  I knew this team wasn't going to go very far from the start because they have too many type A guys that can't coexist.  Nnamdi Asomugha seems to be the most overrated free agent acquisition in recent history.  He's now been targeted for 5 TD's, and has made very few big plays for his team this year.  But let's not take anything away from Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers,  They have a 3-1 record and sit atop the West all alone.  Arizona played toughed today against the Giants, but the 49ers appear to be in the driver seat right now.

Speaking of the Giants, my preseason pick to win the East, got a huge win today in Arizona 31-27 on a controversial call toward the end of the game.  They are now 3-1 with the Redskins in the East and look to be one of the premier teams in the NFC despite all the injuries they have endured.  Eli hasn't turned the ball over the last two games either!

Now let's put all else aside and hand out some records a quarter of the way through the season.

Best 1-3 Team:  Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton is the real deal and he's helped rejuvenate Steve Smith's career.  The running game is decent, but needs to be better with the talent they have there in Williams and Stewart.

Worst Team in the AFC:  Miami Dolphins -  This team has talent, but they need a new coach.  Sparano isn't getting the most out of his players.  He brought in Reggie Bush to be the featured back and limits his carries.  Doesn't make much sense to me.  Now Henne is hurt, and until we find out the severity, they take the crown for worst in conference.

Worst Team in the NFC:  Minnesota Vikings -  Losing to the Chiefs is really all I need to say.  It's time to end the Donovan McNabb experience and let Ponder get some game experience and see if he's capable of being the guy of the future, because this year is already lost in that division.

Best Team in the AFC:  New England Patriots -  As long as BelichickWelker is averaging double digit catches and 120+ yards a game, Tom Brady's job is easy.  This team is built to win and they have a proven system that is successful.  I know they choked against Buffalo two weeks ago, but they got back on track against the Raiders this week and when they are clicking on offense, no one can stop them.

Best Team in the NFC:  Green Bay Packers - I don't know if it's because they're that good, or if it's an intimidation factor, but these guys seem to be untouchable.  Aaron Rodgers has a red cape under his uniform and an S on his chest.  Until they get beat, they are the best in the league!

League MVP - Aaron Rodgers is the obvious choice here, especially after a 6 touchdown performance today.  Wes Welker is my runner up right now.

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Cam Newton.  He's put up an average of 345 yards a game through the air, not to mention rushing for two TD's in a loss against Chicago today.  He's going to be a special player.

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Patrick Peterson.  Not only is this guy a threat on special teams to return it every time he touches the ball, he plays in the secondary with awareness and knowledge well beyond his years.  He's going to be a great player. 

1st Half of the Browns Not a Good One

So far this season, the Browns defense has been pretty stout, but not today.  They are doing a great job of stopping the run, but Matt Hasselback has thrown 3 touchdown passes.  Sheldon Brown has looked awful this year.  He's getting older and it shows, as he cannot keep up with receivers in coverage, and the secondary has displayed some spotty tackling. 

Offensively the line needs to play better and give McCoy time to throw the football.  Schurmur also needs to get Peyton Hillis more involved in the game.

The just need to make a few key adjustments and they can get back into this game.  There are opportunities there if they can capitalize on them.

Who's the Greatest QB of All Time?

The long debated topic around the league and NFL fans for years.  Who's the best signal caller of all time?  My answer?  It's impossible to say for certain.  There are way too many variables involved.  Some of the names that have been mentioned are Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, Dan Marino, John Elway, and many others.  Each quarterback has his own unique skill set and many times they flourish because of the system they are in.  Let's look at an example.

Kurt Warner came from bagging groceries to lead the St Louis Rams to two Super Bowls, one of which he was successful in winning.  They ran a spread offense with a hybrid running back and fast receivers, and were dubbed the "Fastest Show on Turf".  Warner then took his talents to New York, where he was an average QB at best with the Giants.  He then went to the Cardinals, where they implemented the same spread type offense he ran with the Rams and he was able to take them to the Super Bowl for the first time in Franchise history.  Kurt Warner is now retired and will most likely be a first ballot hall of famer.  Do you think he would get this recognition if he played in the Giants scheme his entire career?  Probably not.  

I've discussed Tom Brady numerous times about being a system quarterback that would've never been in this conversation if he was drafted anywhere else in the league.  Belichick is a genius and knows how to get the most out of his players, and has made Brady one of the best ever.  Being drafted late to a good team isn't always a bad thing, you just have to wait for your opportunity.  Look at Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith.  I'm not saying Smith is anywhere near as good as Rodgers, but if Rodgers were drafted first overall instead of Smith, he would not have a Super Bowl ring right now. 

Troy Aikman was a "good" quarterback, but look at the talent that surrounded him in Dallas.  John Elway couldn't get the job done until he got a legitimate running game with Terrell Davis.

Let's look at some of the guys that have legitimate arguments to be mentioned in this category.  Peyton Manning is arguably the smartest QB to ever play the game.  He can dissect a defense and change the play at the line of scrimmage better than anyone.  His issue has been winning big games, which he only has one Super Bowl title to his name.

You won't hear me mention guys from the 60's and 70's because the league is totally different now.  The athletes are bigger and faster, the schemes are a lot harder to learn and recognize, and there's more pressure to perform due to endorsements and other outside deals.  Johnny Unitas may have been the best...in his era.  But I really don't think he would have been able to compete against today's athletes.

Dan Marino put up great numbers because he had to throw the ball every down.  Can you name a running back that lined up behind Marino during his career?  Brett Favre holds every record imaginable, because he played for 40 years!  He had his great moments, but he made way too many costly mistakes to be considered the greatest ever.  Terry Bradshaw is a lot like Tom Brady.  Neither of them were very athletic but they were surrounded by a strong cast and great coaching, and made plays when they needed to.  As a result, they've combined for seven Super Bowl titles. 

Joe Montana wasn't real athletic in his own right, but this guy knew how to win.  They had some amazing talent on those 49er teams, but no one was more clutch in big games than Joe Cool.  

After looking at film and reviewing statistics, it's impossible to say who the greatest QB is.  Variables like era played in, supporting cast, coaching staff, system played in, and many other factors need to be weighed in and evaluated.

I believe if you take Peyton Manning's intelligence, Tom Brady's accuracy, Joe Montana's calm demeanor and clutch play, Michael Vick's speed, Drew Brees' deep ball, and Dan Marino's swagger, you will then have the ultimate quarterback.

Take the poll below and comment on your thoughts.