5 Players to Start and 5 Players to Sit in Fantasy Week 4

Week 4 poses some pretty intense match ups around the league.  This is one of the first weeks of the season where good teams start to separate themselves from the average teams.  I've evaluated the fantasy options and have given you 5 players that are must starts this weekend and 5 players you may want to leave on your bench.  Let's get started!


Start Em'

1. Adrian Peterson - Peterson plays against a beat up Kansas City defense who gave up 26 fantasy points last week to Ryan Matthews of the Chargers.  Their offense isn't good enough to stay on the field so expect A.D. to get many carries in this one.  He's a must start!

2.  Drew Brees - Jacksonville defense has been decent this year, but Brees is averaging 22 points a week in fantasy formats, so expect him to continue to throw the ball around a lot and put up big numbers against the Jags.

3.  Santana Moss -  He's been sub-par at best this year, but he's facing a Rams defense that has given up a league leading 6 touchdown receptions to opposing receivers, so expect Moss to have a huge game this Sunday. 

4.  Aaron Rodgers - Over his last 13 home starts Rodgers has gone 12-1, while passing for 3,609 yards and 29 touchdowns. That comes out to 277 passing yards per game and two scores per contest. I like his chances of continuing this against the Broncos this weekend.  He's a must start!

5.  Greg Jennings -  Someone has to catch all of those balls from Rodgers, and after JerMichael Finley's performance last week, I expect John Fox's defense to target the tight end, which will leave some single coverage for Jennings on the outside.  Expect a big week for the Green Bay wide out. 

Sit Em'

1.  Beanie Wells -  We're not sure if Wells is going to play yet or not, but if he does, I would only consider him a third flex option against the Giants.  Osi is back in the lineup and the defensive front is looking better each week.  

2.  Joe Flacco -  Flacco has proven he struggles against solid secondaries, and that is what the Jets are bringing to town against the Ravens.  Look for him to play like he did two weeks ago against the Titans.  Go with your other QB if you have a better match up this week.

3.  Rashard Mendenhall - Mendenhall has not run well to start the season and has just one game with double digits in Fantasy points in Week 2 against the Seahawks.  He only managed to score 4.6 points against the Colts rush defense, so don't look for him to have a huge game this weekend. 

4.  Cam Newton - I know Newton has put up big numbers in the first three weeks of the season, but Chicago has a swarming defense that is very opportunistic and will create some take aways.  Look for the Bears to keep Cam in check this week.

5.  Felix Jones -  The Lions have given up the third fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, so don't expect the injury prone Jones to have a pick game this weekend.  I would stay away from Dallas offensive players in general apart from Witten. 

Fantasy Football Review through Week 3

Things have played out fairly similar to what I predicted early on before the season started in my first blog, but there has been a few surprises.  The biggest one:  The Lions!  Davis has orchestrated a 3-0 start putting up a whopping 294.5 points, nearly 100 per game.  He has the second best running back in the NFL right now and inter-changeable quarterbacks that he can swap out each week based on match ups.
Another big surprise is the 3-0 Big Red Machine.  The loss of Kenny Britt is going to hurt him in the receiving corp, but he has Aaron Rodgers and THE best back in the league in Darren McFadden.  Great start to the season Willie!

The usually strong Acehole bandits have failed to reach 170 points through 3 games, mainly because they failed to draft a running back until the 4th round.  Then they took Steven Jackson who is bound to miss most of the season due to injuries.  I like the two quarterbacks and Andre Johnson, but beyond that there isn't much to be desired on this roster.

Even worse are the Punishers, mainly because of all the smack talking they've done all year and have yet to win a game.  On paper, the roster looks decent, but they are cursed by the devils tongue.  Quit talking, get off your "train", and manage the team and win some games.

My squad, the Dawgpound, are a solid 2-1 only because I've lucked out with my opposition not scoring many points.  The Falcons are killing me with Matt Ryan and Michael Turner playing sub-par football, and Mike Wallace is my only legitimate receiver threat.  I'll be the first to say unless I can make some smart free agent acquisitions, I will be in trouble this year.
Despite losing Charles, the Dynamites are still the team I thought they were and they will win that division.  Way to draft all those running backs buddy.

Dawgpound and Big Red Machine are the only two teams that have not had 200+ points scored on them, which explains are solid records.  Despite being 2-1, Chit Luck is much improved and has scored 286 points.  Way to go Mort!

Honorable mention goes to the Gamblers and the Munchers.  The Legion of Doom have outscored both teams in their division, but they've also given up more points, so it's the luck of the draw.

We're getting deep into the season already and this is the week where teams will start creating separation.  Good luck to everyone this week.  My team is not great, but I'm having fun writing about everyone and I hope you enjoy reading it!

Why Haven't the Colts Contacted Garrard?

To say that the Indianapolis Colts quarterback situation is in disarray would be an understatement.  Kerry Collins has been absolutely brutal, and Curtis Painter doesn't show much promise as a replacement.  They went out this week and resigned Dan Orlovsky, and are bringing in Brodie Croyle to try out for the team.  But why haven't they contacted David Garrard?
There seems to be some kind of plague against Garrard, who threw 23 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions last year and made a Pro Bowl yet doesn't seem to have any teams willing to give him a shot.  If you look at the Colts offensive line, they are young, haven't played many games together, and have a rookie left tackle.  With this type of line you need a quarterback that can extend the play and Collins is too old to do that.  Painter and Orlovsky don't have enough experience to do this, and they're both pocket passers.  David Garrard isn't a speedster, but he is able to move around in the pocket and create plays with his legs and buy time for his receivers to get open.

Let's face it, Dallas Clark is the epitome of a pass catching tight end.  He's not going to stay in and block too many defensive ends and outside linebackers successfully. They need a quarterback with a quick release that can extend plays and get the ball out of his hands. 

At this point with the quarterbacks available, David Garrard would be their best option to win some games.  None of the QB's on the roster are going to get the job done for them.  May be they should give McAfee a shot at QB.  The fans seem to be a favorite of this.

As for a Peyton Manning return this season, don't count on it. Colts owner Jim Irsay delivered some mixed messages on the topic Monday morning, but it continues to look like even a December return borders on pipe-dream status. NFL Network's Albert Breer reported last week that Manning is dealing with a nine- to 12-month rehabilitation process, which would have him ready for training camp in 2012.  It doesn't look like they will be competing for a Super Bowl at home this season.

Week 4 Predictions

If you're like me, you're probably trying to figure out what teams to place your money on this Sunday.  Thursday is a big day for betters because it's the first day of the week you really dive into the rosters, see who's definitely out, who may be out, where the game is being played, who's dog died, and so on.  I went 12-4 last weekend with Buffalo shocking the world and my wallet.  Let's break down each game and I'll give you my expert opinion on the final score and who you should put your loot on. 

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: Vegas currently has the Bears 7 point favorites.  Carolina's defense is playing better than expected, and Cam Newton looks like the real deal.  It's supposed to be sunny and 63 in Chicago, so don't look for the weather to slow down the Panthers.  Key to stopping Chicago, stuff Matt Forte.  Chicago's defense will confuse the young quarterback, but they won't cover the spread.  Bears win 19-17

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals:  Remember last years thriller when the Bills came from behind to win?  They've been doing that a lot this year, but I don't expect them to be behind much in this one.  The Bills are 3.5 point favorites and should cover that spread.  Andy Dalton has had his moments for the Bengals, but this offense has too many legal issues.  If this was a drug selling contest, Bengals win easy, but in football, the Bills take this one in double digit fashion.  Bills win 27-13

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns:  This is a very intriguing match up.  The Titans have looked better than expected under new coach Mike Munchak.  Matt Hasselback seems to have some fuel left in the tank, but the loss of Kenny Britt is going to hurt them.  Chris Johnson still isn't back to form, so I don't see this offense being very successful against a stout Browns defense.  Peyton Hillis should be back and looks to have a viable backfield mate in Hardesty.  The spread is currently dead even at the money line, so even the odds makers in Vegas aren't sure about this one.  I am!  Browns 18-14

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys:  The usual turkey day match up a few months early.  The Cowboys have dominated this rivalry as of late, but we're talking about a different Lions ball club than the team that was kicked around in the past, losing nearly 30 straight road games.  They are 3-0 tied atop the division with the Packers.  The Cowboys kicked their way to a win against the Skins on Monday night.  They also seem to be the team dealing with injuries this year instead of the Lions.  The spread is currently even, so I'm taking the Lions to improve to 4-0.  Lions win 24-17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans:  One of the best match ups of the weekend!  This game will tell us if Houston is for real and if the Steelers are on their way down.  If it goes the other way, then it's the same old AFC as the previous years.  Houston lost a tough one in New Orleans last weekend, but playing at home this Sunday should help.  The Steelers can't run the ball this year, so Wade Phillips should be able to keep an extra defensive back deep to prevent big plays to Mike Wallace.  Houston is actually 4 point favorites in this game, but I don't like them to cover.  Houston wins 30-28

New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars:  The thing that strikes me odd is Jacksonville is only being spotted 7 points in this game.  They have a rookie quarterback starting his second game and a coach that's on his way out the door.  This team has nothing to lose so expect them to pull out all the stops.  Drew Brees should throw for over 300 yards and 3 TD's in this one.  Saints win 34-13

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs:  If you live in an area where this is the only game you get on TV and you don't have the Sunday Ticket, I feel for ya.  The Vikings are 2.5 point favorites, but as a betting man, I wouldn't touch this game.  If it was a 30 minute game, the Vikings would win by 20, but unfortunately for them we play 60 minutes.  They've blown a lead every game this season, but the Chiefs have never held a lead.  They almost beat the Gate-less Chargers last weekend who always struggle in September, but they really may be the worst team in football.  Adrian Peterson will have a monster game and the Vikings will cover the spread easily.  Vikings win 24-13
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles:  Vick says with 100% certainty that he's playing in this Sunday's game.  This Eagles team does not play well together, which was my biggest concern at the start of the season, when I compared them to the Lakers who acquired Gary Payton and Karl Malone to try and buy a championship.  Fact is, Asomugha is NOT THAT GOOD!  They paid this man a lot of money to come in and make plays, and he's done nothing but give up touchdowns.  Look at his "lack of" stats in Oakland.  They say it's cause no one threw to him.  I say it's cause he's not very good.  Jets look smart sticking with Cromartie.  This game is in Philly though, so I do like them to win and cover the 9 point spread.  Eagles win 27-6

Washington Redskins at St Louis Rams:Rams win 16-15

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals:  The Giants, despite all of their injuries, proved they are still a team to be reckoned with in the NFC East by defeating the Eagles last Sunday.  Manning had the best game of his season, and he should have similar success with Mario Manningham back in the lineup this Sunday.  Arizona was awful losing to the Seahawks and only scoring 10 points, which would have never happened if it weren't for Fitzgerald.  If the Giants can find a way to shut down the receiver, they will win huge in Arizona.  They are only 1.5 point favorites, but I like them to cover easily.  Giants win 31-20

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks:  What in the world is wrong with the Falcons this year?  They were supposed to be better right?  Julio Jones is playing well for a rookie, but Roddy White can't catch a cold, and Matt Ryan looks to bipolar.  Seattle is one of the hardest places to play, and it's no secret that Ryan struggles on the road, but look for them to cover the 5.5 point spread this week.  Atlanta wins 30-10

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers:  The only thing the Broncos have going for them this week is they're playing on the road, so Orton doesn't have to hear the "Tebow" chants throughout the entire game.  The Packers are marred with injuries, but that didn't seem to stop them from winning the Super Bowl last year.  It's a 13.5 point spread this weekend but I don't think they'll cover.  Green Bay wins 21-10

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders:  Ah, the dark hole.  The Raider Nation will be out in full force after they demolished the Jets last weekend.  But Tom Brady and the Pats are going to be bitter and focused after blowing a huge lead to the Bills and ultimately losing the game.  The Raiders are getting 5 points in this one, but it may not be enough.  They are one dimensional and Belichick is a genius at bouncing back from a loss and getting his team on track.  The Pats cover easily.  Patriots win 38-17

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers:  Well, we know the Chargers struggle to win games in September and they may be without Antonio Gates again this week.  The Dolphins struggle to win period this year and they need a new identity.  They have the players in place to be a decent team, but they've struggled against a tough schedule thus far.  The Chargers are 7 point favorites at home, and I don't see any reason they shouldn't cover.  Chargers win 28-13

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens:  I'm not really sure who either of these teams are yet.  One week they look great, the next week, bleh...This game should be a true test to see what they are made of.  Rex Ryan takes on the defense he created in Baltimore, so it's always an intriguing match up.  Ray Rice should have a big day running the ball on the Jets D after they gave up 200 yards on the ground to Oakland last weekend.  Baltimore is 3.5 point favorites and I expect them to cover at home.  Ravens win 19-12

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  The Colts finally managed to show a little heart on defense last weekend and took the Steelers all the way to the wire.  Curtis Painter may get the start for the Colts, so let's see if he can provide a spark to that offense.  They were actually able to run the ball a little bit, so that will take some pressure off who ever the QB may be.  The Buc's are up and down, so we're not sure what to expect out of them.  They are playing at home so I do expect them to get the win, but I don't see them covering the 10 point spread.  Buccaneers win 17-13. 

Enjoy the games this weekend and hopefully this helps you regain some of the money you may have lost last week during those upset games.

A Look Ahead at Week 4

Week 4 is going to include some key match ups, including six potential AFC playoff teams facing off.  We're nearly a quarter of the way through the season already, and this is when the teams start to define who they really are and create separation from the rest of the competition.  Let's jump right into it!

One of the biggest early games will be the Detroit Lions traveling to Dallas to take on the Cowboys.  Now I don't see the Cowboys as an elite team in this league, but the Lions need this win to prove they are a force in the NFC.  The Cowboys need the victory more playing in a very competitive NFC East conference, where they currently sit in a three way tie with the Giants and Redskins for first place.  Tony Romo's "injury" should be fairly well behind him at this point and we can start discussing football in Dallas again.  First round pick Nick Fairley still isn't expected to suit up for the Lions with a nagging foot injury, but I don't suspect they will need him.  Lions get it done in a tight one.

Pittsburgh and Houston are both coming off disappointing games last weekend.  Sure, the Steelers won in Indianapolis but they were 15 point favorites going into the game and had to win on a last second field goal.  This team looks older on defense, the line cannot run block like they use to, and it seems they are fading behind Baltimore in the division.  Houston blew a big lead in New Orleans where the game ended up going back and forth in the fourth quarter before Drew Brees finally put them away.  I expect their defense to play better this week against the Steelers in what should be a fairly low scoring game.  I like Houston to win the game and prove their spot in the AFC elite.

The marquee match up in the four o'clock games will be the Patriots at Oakland.  Always a tough place to play, and the Raiders seem like a legitimate team this year.  They should be 3-0 if for not blowing a late lead to the Bills. Same could be said for the Patriots.  I expect Belichick to have his boys chomping at the bit after that embarrassing loss last week and win this game pretty easily.  I do like Darren McFadden as the best back in the league right now though.

Finally we move to the Sunday night game, where the Ravens play host to the Jets.  I still don't know who this Ravens team is.  They man handle the Steelers in week one only to be shut down by the Tennessee Titans the following week, then dismantle the Rams last weekend.  If there is a pattern forming here, the Jets should have their way with them.  As a top ranked defense in the NFL, it had to be discouraging for Rex Ryan to see McFadden and company run all over his Jets last weekend.  They look very vulnerable against the run, so expect Ray Rice to have a big day.  I like the Ravens by 6 in this match up.

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Dolphins Are Pointing Fingers After 0-3 Start

The Miami Dolphins have now dropped three consecutive games to start the season, all to fairly decent teams.  They managed to hang around with the New England Patriots in week 1 until Brady ripped them for over 500 yards through the air.  They played a tough Houston Texans team that has proven that they are on the verge of becoming a legitimate contender.  They struggled offensively in week 3 against a very good Cleveland Browns defense and couldn't stop Colt McCoy on the final drive to ultimately win the game for the Browns.
This has resulted in some finger pointing, mainly at head coach Tony Sparano.  When asked what was wrong with the team, Davone Bess came out publicly to state: "For the most part, just communication," Bess said. "Whether it's the receivers -- on my behalf, not getting a certain signal, messing up a play that could have potentially been a touchdown, or whether it's the quarterback not giving the signal out and the line not understanding what the protection is. And these are errors that we are causing on ourselves. It's not even the defense. It starts with us.
"A lot of that stems from discipline, a lot of it stems from not putting probably as much time as we should in the meeting rooms ..." Bess also added. 

Reggie Bush offered similar comments.  "The same things that happen during the games are the same things that are happening in practice," Bush said, according to FoxSports. "It carries over. We have to practice better, and I think once we begin to do that you'll start to see a better team.

"Don't walk off the field until you get it right."

Most of the players agree with these remarks, so what does that mean for the Dolphins?  Remember, Sparano was brought here from Dallas with Bill Parcells.  The Tuna is no longer in Miami, so how long can Sparano hold his job in South Florida?  Only time will tell, but it looks like they are the obvious door mat in the division, which could result in six losses right there.  Some early favorites to take the position right now are Bill Cowher, Jeff Gruden, and Jeff Fisher.  We'll see how things unfold and which one of these head coaches are interested in taking over a team that has talent, but lacks discipline.  

Manning's Season Over?

It appears that the Colts star quarterback Peyton Manning is out for the season, according to Colts owner Jim Irsay Monday morning.  He stated that December would be a possibility for Manning to come back, but realistically, this team is not going to have a winning record in December and no chance of a playoff birth so why risk bringing Manning back too early? 

It looks like Manning is going to be sidelined until next season at best, so the Colts are moving on with Collins or Painter at QB.  It looks as if they also just brought journeyman Dan Orlovsky back on the roster.  Fantasy owners, if you haven't done so already, drop Manning from your team, even in the deepest of leagues, because he will not be coming back any time soon.  Kerry Collins left Sunday night's game against the Steelers with a mild concussion, so Colts fan got to see a glimpse of Curtis Painter under center.  Painter had a couple decent throws, but didn't show much hope for the struggling offense.  At this point, he may be the best option for the Colts with what they have on the roster.  Collins looks like a retired quarterback.  He's slow, he's not able to move in the pocket, and his release is very slow and he holds the ball to low.  None of these attributes bode well for a struggling young offensive line.  This is why Collins has fumbled and turned the ball over so many times in the first three games.

Watching this game last night, it really showed how much Peyton Manning means to this team, not only as a player, but as a coach.  The Colts lined up in formations that should have been checked out of, or not called at all.  They had Dallas Clark trying to block James Harrison most of the night, and he's never going to win that battle.  The coaching staff needs to step up and create mismatches and put their team in the best position to succeed.

A bright spot Sunday night was the Colts defense, especially the rush defense, stuffing the Steelers running backs nearly every time they touched the ball.  If the defense continues to play this way, the Colts can win a few games.  Looking at their schedule, I see six games that they can compete in.  They face Tampa Bay Monday night, who's defense looks very stout, but their offense is sputtering this year, so if the Colts can keep it close, they can have a chance like they did last night against Pittsburgh.  Then they have the Chiefs and Bengals, which are both winnable games for the Colts.  Week 12 they host the Carolina Panthers, who they have a good shot of beating, and the Jaguars twice on the schedule should be competitive games.  I don't expect them to compete with New England, New Orleans, or the Tennessee Titans this year.