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Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Week 5 Bold Predictions and Spreads

Well last week was a tough week for picking games across the league, but I still managed to go 9-7 and help some people win some money on key match ups, especially the Monday night game last night.  We're moving into Wednesday, mid-week, and this is when I start looking at the match-ups and breaking them down, giving preliminary spreads and predictions.  Let's jump right into it shall we?

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers - Surprisingly the Saints are only 7 point favorites in this game, but that's largely credited to the emergence of rookie Cam Newton.  He's had Carolina in every game they've played this season, and he appears to get better and better each week.  Being in Carolina, I don't expect the Saints to run away with this one, but they will cover the spread this weekend, 24-14 

The Titans at the Steelers is going to be a great game.  It looks like Roethlisberger may not play in this game, but remember last year when the QB was out the first four games and they started off 4-0.  This isn't the same team as last year.  The Steelers are playing at home and are 4 point favorites, but I don't see them winning this game.  The offensive line is awful, they can't run the ball, and they are playing the top ranked defense in the NFL.  I like the Titans in an upset here 16-13. 

Kansas City Chiefs at the Indianapolis Colts - The Colts have looked competitive the last two weeks and despite Curtis Painter throwing 13-30, he looked pretty consistent and kept the Colts in the game.  But defensively they've now lost Eric Foster, Melvin Bullit, and Gary Brackett for the season.  This game will be the contest for first pick in the draft possibly in April.  The Colts are three point favorites playing at home, but the Chiefs played the Chargers tough last weekend and beat the Vikings two nights ago so this could be a toss up.  I'm going out on a limb here and saying the Colts will win this game 24-19

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills -  It looks like Michael Vick is going to play and this team is bound to get things turned around eventually.  The Bills are coming off a heart breaking loss to the Bengals to drop to 3-1.  This is the game of the season for them to see if they are actually for real or not.  The Bills are getting 3 points at home this weekend.  Weather shouldn't be too much of a factor, so the Eagles shouldn't be deterred by unfavorable conditions.  I like the Eagles to get off of the skid here 31-20

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants - The Seahawks have shown some improvement the last few weeks, but they are traveling to the meadowlands to face the Giants who are looking to find their stride despite all the injuries on defense.  The Giants are 10 point favorites but they are not covering the spread in too many games this year.  I do like the defense to get after Travaris Jackson and shut down the Seattle offense.  Giants will cover this week 27-6

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars - The Bengals are coming off a huge victory over the Bills and Andy Dalton looks like he's progressing each week.  the Jags are in trouble offensively, and I don't see them winning this game.  They are 2.5 point favorites right now at home, but the Bengals will win this one 16-10

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans - Both of these teams are good this year, but the Texans are playing this one at home and have a healthy Arian Foster.  Andre Johnson may be hurt, so that will give Oakland a slight edge if Johnson can't go.  Houston is 6 point favorites and they can put up points in bunches.  I do expect them to cover in this one 31-21

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings - The Cards are a very good team but they play down to their competition at times and they make too many mental errors.  Minnesota is awful, and somehow they are 2.5 favorites, mainly cause it's a home game.  Look for Arizona to rebound from two straight tough losses and hand the Vikings their 5th straight.  Cards win 27-24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers are surprisingly 3 point favorites in this one, so this one will be considered an upset when the Buccaneers win.  Bucs win 18-15

New York Jets at New England Patriots - This will be the game of the week!  Patriots are the best team in the AFC and the Jets defense is struggling.  Mark Sanchez needs to be better at this stage in his career as well, so I think the Jets are losing some ground here.  Patriots cover the 9 point spread and win big 30-13

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos - It's no longer September so look for the Chargers to play much better than they have in previous weeks.  It looks like they'll still be without Gates which hurts there game over the middle.  They only have 4.5 points they're getting, so I think they will cover with a 21-13 victory

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons -  This is where the Falcons crumbled last year in the post season and still haven't found themselves.  Green Bay is not invincible and are bound to slip up sooner or later and I think that this will be that week.  They are 6.5 point favorites but I think the Falcons win at home outright 27-24
UPSET ALERT

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions -  This is going to be a good game, but Cutler will find himself on the ground double digit times.  The Lions are 6 point favorites and will cover because that defense will get after Jay Cutler all night.  They will start fast and finish strong, winning 28-20

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