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Thursday, September 29, 2011

Week 4 Predictions

If you're like me, you're probably trying to figure out what teams to place your money on this Sunday.  Thursday is a big day for betters because it's the first day of the week you really dive into the rosters, see who's definitely out, who may be out, where the game is being played, who's dog died, and so on.  I went 12-4 last weekend with Buffalo shocking the world and my wallet.  Let's break down each game and I'll give you my expert opinion on the final score and who you should put your loot on. 

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: Vegas currently has the Bears 7 point favorites.  Carolina's defense is playing better than expected, and Cam Newton looks like the real deal.  It's supposed to be sunny and 63 in Chicago, so don't look for the weather to slow down the Panthers.  Key to stopping Chicago, stuff Matt Forte.  Chicago's defense will confuse the young quarterback, but they won't cover the spread.  Bears win 19-17

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals:  Remember last years thriller when the Bills came from behind to win?  They've been doing that a lot this year, but I don't expect them to be behind much in this one.  The Bills are 3.5 point favorites and should cover that spread.  Andy Dalton has had his moments for the Bengals, but this offense has too many legal issues.  If this was a drug selling contest, Bengals win easy, but in football, the Bills take this one in double digit fashion.  Bills win 27-13

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns:  This is a very intriguing match up.  The Titans have looked better than expected under new coach Mike Munchak.  Matt Hasselback seems to have some fuel left in the tank, but the loss of Kenny Britt is going to hurt them.  Chris Johnson still isn't back to form, so I don't see this offense being very successful against a stout Browns defense.  Peyton Hillis should be back and looks to have a viable backfield mate in Hardesty.  The spread is currently dead even at the money line, so even the odds makers in Vegas aren't sure about this one.  I am!  Browns 18-14

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys:  The usual turkey day match up a few months early.  The Cowboys have dominated this rivalry as of late, but we're talking about a different Lions ball club than the team that was kicked around in the past, losing nearly 30 straight road games.  They are 3-0 tied atop the division with the Packers.  The Cowboys kicked their way to a win against the Skins on Monday night.  They also seem to be the team dealing with injuries this year instead of the Lions.  The spread is currently even, so I'm taking the Lions to improve to 4-0.  Lions win 24-17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans:  One of the best match ups of the weekend!  This game will tell us if Houston is for real and if the Steelers are on their way down.  If it goes the other way, then it's the same old AFC as the previous years.  Houston lost a tough one in New Orleans last weekend, but playing at home this Sunday should help.  The Steelers can't run the ball this year, so Wade Phillips should be able to keep an extra defensive back deep to prevent big plays to Mike Wallace.  Houston is actually 4 point favorites in this game, but I don't like them to cover.  Houston wins 30-28

New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars:  The thing that strikes me odd is Jacksonville is only being spotted 7 points in this game.  They have a rookie quarterback starting his second game and a coach that's on his way out the door.  This team has nothing to lose so expect them to pull out all the stops.  Drew Brees should throw for over 300 yards and 3 TD's in this one.  Saints win 34-13

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs:  If you live in an area where this is the only game you get on TV and you don't have the Sunday Ticket, I feel for ya.  The Vikings are 2.5 point favorites, but as a betting man, I wouldn't touch this game.  If it was a 30 minute game, the Vikings would win by 20, but unfortunately for them we play 60 minutes.  They've blown a lead every game this season, but the Chiefs have never held a lead.  They almost beat the Gate-less Chargers last weekend who always struggle in September, but they really may be the worst team in football.  Adrian Peterson will have a monster game and the Vikings will cover the spread easily.  Vikings win 24-13
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles:  Vick says with 100% certainty that he's playing in this Sunday's game.  This Eagles team does not play well together, which was my biggest concern at the start of the season, when I compared them to the Lakers who acquired Gary Payton and Karl Malone to try and buy a championship.  Fact is, Asomugha is NOT THAT GOOD!  They paid this man a lot of money to come in and make plays, and he's done nothing but give up touchdowns.  Look at his "lack of" stats in Oakland.  They say it's cause no one threw to him.  I say it's cause he's not very good.  Jets look smart sticking with Cromartie.  This game is in Philly though, so I do like them to win and cover the 9 point spread.  Eagles win 27-6

Washington Redskins at St Louis Rams:Rams win 16-15

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals:  The Giants, despite all of their injuries, proved they are still a team to be reckoned with in the NFC East by defeating the Eagles last Sunday.  Manning had the best game of his season, and he should have similar success with Mario Manningham back in the lineup this Sunday.  Arizona was awful losing to the Seahawks and only scoring 10 points, which would have never happened if it weren't for Fitzgerald.  If the Giants can find a way to shut down the receiver, they will win huge in Arizona.  They are only 1.5 point favorites, but I like them to cover easily.  Giants win 31-20

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks:  What in the world is wrong with the Falcons this year?  They were supposed to be better right?  Julio Jones is playing well for a rookie, but Roddy White can't catch a cold, and Matt Ryan looks to bipolar.  Seattle is one of the hardest places to play, and it's no secret that Ryan struggles on the road, but look for them to cover the 5.5 point spread this week.  Atlanta wins 30-10

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers:  The only thing the Broncos have going for them this week is they're playing on the road, so Orton doesn't have to hear the "Tebow" chants throughout the entire game.  The Packers are marred with injuries, but that didn't seem to stop them from winning the Super Bowl last year.  It's a 13.5 point spread this weekend but I don't think they'll cover.  Green Bay wins 21-10

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders:  Ah, the dark hole.  The Raider Nation will be out in full force after they demolished the Jets last weekend.  But Tom Brady and the Pats are going to be bitter and focused after blowing a huge lead to the Bills and ultimately losing the game.  The Raiders are getting 5 points in this one, but it may not be enough.  They are one dimensional and Belichick is a genius at bouncing back from a loss and getting his team on track.  The Pats cover easily.  Patriots win 38-17

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers:  Well, we know the Chargers struggle to win games in September and they may be without Antonio Gates again this week.  The Dolphins struggle to win period this year and they need a new identity.  They have the players in place to be a decent team, but they've struggled against a tough schedule thus far.  The Chargers are 7 point favorites at home, and I don't see any reason they shouldn't cover.  Chargers win 28-13

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens:  I'm not really sure who either of these teams are yet.  One week they look great, the next week, bleh...This game should be a true test to see what they are made of.  Rex Ryan takes on the defense he created in Baltimore, so it's always an intriguing match up.  Ray Rice should have a big day running the ball on the Jets D after they gave up 200 yards on the ground to Oakland last weekend.  Baltimore is 3.5 point favorites and I expect them to cover at home.  Ravens win 19-12

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  The Colts finally managed to show a little heart on defense last weekend and took the Steelers all the way to the wire.  Curtis Painter may get the start for the Colts, so let's see if he can provide a spark to that offense.  They were actually able to run the ball a little bit, so that will take some pressure off who ever the QB may be.  The Buc's are up and down, so we're not sure what to expect out of them.  They are playing at home so I do expect them to get the win, but I don't see them covering the 10 point spread.  Buccaneers win 17-13. 

Enjoy the games this weekend and hopefully this helps you regain some of the money you may have lost last week during those upset games.

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